Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,260$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $149$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $738$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,550$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(101.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,642.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,642.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(771 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,941.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,941.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,069$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,070$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,290.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,154$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,364.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,364.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,456$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,667,955$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,911,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,911,785.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $154,860$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,143.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,143.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,044,406$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $306,309$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(288,951.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,286$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,057.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,057.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,579$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,422$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,723.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,723.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,743$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,555.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,679$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $211,220$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,598.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(191,598.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,154$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,886.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,158$ on 2020-08-02