Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,260$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $149$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $738$ on 2020-08-02

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,550$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(101.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,642.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,642.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(771 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,941.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,941.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,069$ on 2020-08-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,070$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,290.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,154$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,364.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,364.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,456$ on 2020-08-02

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,667,955$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,911,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,911,785.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $154,860$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,143.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,143.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,044,406$ on 2020-08-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $306,309$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(288,951.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,286$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,057.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,057.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $258,579$ on 2020-08-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,422$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,723.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,723.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,743$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,555.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,679$ on 2020-08-02

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,220$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,598.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(191,598.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,154$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,886.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,158$ on 2020-08-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 89%
Turkey recovered 87%
Belarus recovered 82%
Pakistan recovered 77%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 72%
Sri Lanka recovered 69%
United Arab Emirates recovered 65%
Mauritania recovered 65%
Bahrain recovered 52%
Kuwait recovered 48%
Portugal recovered 47%
Azerbaijan recovered 44%
Saudi Arabia recovered 43%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 38%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 31%
Armenia recovered 30%
Russia recovered 24%
Paraguay recovered 17%
Egypt recovered 15%
North Macedonia recovered 12%
South Africa recovered 10%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,389$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(138.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 20.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,320.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(281.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $808$ on 2020-08-02

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,856$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,685.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,728$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,235.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,235.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,634$ on 2020-08-02

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,067$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67,344.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $567$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(69.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(629.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,604$ on 2020-08-02

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $279,699$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,567.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(294,567.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,976$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(438 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,487.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,487.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,146$ on 2020-08-02